This is a very well-researched report, just published, shows that in only a minority (37%) of European regions does air connectivity growth drive economic growth. These regions are mainly found in Eastern Europe and tourist *receiving* areas.  

The authors write:

Yes, air connectivity and GDP per capita are correlated. But causation, direction and location are too often ignored (and in 11% of regions they are negatively correlated!).
⭕ In the majority of European regions (53%) economic growth drives air transport demand. Higher incomes create demand for outbound leisure travel. This may create a welfare benefit to flyers, but not a wider economic benefit.
⭕ In a minority (37%) air connectivity growth drives economic growth. These regions are mainly found in Eastern Europe and tourist *receiving* areas. This is the impact policymakers want, and the industry lays claim to.
⭕ but… that causal relationship, relied upon to promote airport expansion and resist aviation taxation, is hardly present in northern and western Europe.
⭕ Why? A major factor is the decline in business use of air travel. It’s accelerated since the pandemic, but was already stagnant in most of western Europe prior to that (Figure below).
⭕ But even in tourist receiving areas, the relationship isn’t as strong as it used to be. Declining duration of tourist stay and the rise of informal accommodation, overtourism and land/rent rises, have reduced the value it brings. Meanwhile we show that domestic tourism and land-transport CAN substitute for air travel.

To help characterise the air transport-economy relationship across European regions, we applied a statistical clustering approach to create four distinct groupings (map below):
🛫 In Cluster 1: Mainly eastern Europe. Business air demand is still rising. Incoming tourism is lower, and so are incomes and pre-existing connectivity. Chances of finding a causal relationship driving economic growth: 53%
🛫 In Cluster 2: Mainly tourism recipients. Business air demand is down. Air transport remains important to bring tourism, but the quality of that tourism matters. Chances of finding a causal relationship driving economic growth: 59%
🛫 In Cluster 3: Tourism sending regions of northern and western Europe. Business air demand is way down. Most regions have a travel spending deficit. Chances of finding a causal relationship driving economic growth: 23%
🛫 In Cluster 4: Capitals and already well-connected regions. There are signs of saturation in both directions. People here don’t need more connectivity. Chances of finding a causal relationship driving economic growth: 29%

💥 A big caveat. Our economic model does NOT include the climate driven economic impacts – that will be considered in Part Two – so all of the outcomes are actually worse than stated. Our economic model does NOT include equity/the distribution of impacts – that will be considered in Part Three – and who benefits really matters.

This was a collaboration between the New Economics Foundation and T&E
Report:  https://neweconomics.org/2025/11/the-economics-of-air-transport-in-europe